According to Statistics Canada, the population of Canada has seen an extraordinary increase, with an estimated 40,528,396 people living there as of October 1st, 2023. This astounding number, which includes both citizens and residents, indicates a significant rise of 430,635 individuals, signifying a noteworthy growth rate of 1.1% from July 1st, 2023. This spike in population growth is the largest to have occurred in any quarter since the second quarter of 1957, a critical time in Canada’s post-war history.
Historical Background: Remnants of the Past
When comparing the current growth to historical data, it can be shown that Canada has not experienced such significant growth since the second quarter of 1957, when the growth rate was 1.2%. Canada had a modest 16.7 million people living there at the time, mostly due to post-war baby boom births and an influx of refugees after the 1956 Hungarian Revolution.
With a total of 1,030,378 persons, the population growth in the first nine months of 2023 is the most on record. This includes the notable increase shown in 2022, which highlights the current trend in Canada’s demographic environment.
Motivating Factor: Global Migration Leads the Way
International migration accounted for a substantial percentage (96%) of the population growth in the third quarter of 2023. The remaining 4%, which represents the difference between births and deaths, was the outcome of a natural increase. It is anticipated that factors including Canada’s aging population, falling fertility rates, and the influx of immigrants will reduce the contribution of natural increase to population growth.
The remarkable growth numbers were aided by Canada’s invitation of 107,972 immigrants in the third quarter of 2023. Immigration surpassed 79.8% (371,299) of the IRCC’s yearly objective of 465,000 immigrants between January and September 2023.
The significant rise of non-permanent residents—a historic net gain of 312,758 in the third quarter alone—is a notable feature of the surge. With a lesser increase in refugee claims, this spike is mainly attributable to an increase in the holders of work and study permits.
Growth Throughout the Board in Provincial Dynamics
The population of all Canadian provinces and territories increased, except the Northwest Territories. Notably, population growth rates in Alberta, Prince Edward Island, and Ontario during the third quarter of 2023 were 1.3%, 1.2%, and 1.2%, respectively, higher than the national average.
Migration trends between provinces showed that only Alberta was seeing net gains, with a rise of 17,094 during the third quarter of 2023. Gains exceeding 10,000 for five straight quarters are part of a trend that is evocative of patterns not seen since 1971. The main sources of Alberta’s benefits are its interprovincial transactions with British Columbia and Ontario. On the other hand, British Columbia experienced interprovincial migration losses for the first time in five quarters since 2013.
In the third quarter of 2023, Ontario had a lower net loss (-5,952) in interprovincial migration, but continuing net losses since the first quarter of 2020. Compared to the boom seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Atlantic provinces saw little to negative net interprovincial movement, primarily as a result of a decline in migrants arriving from Ontario to the Atlantic provinces.
